Global Finance: What is your view about the Costa Rican economy in the next 12 months?
Róger Madrigal López: Costa Rica is a small, open economy, exposed to the global political and economic environment. Despite the geopolitical conflicts and the challenges arising from the slowdown in international economic activity, projections from international organizations and the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) indicate that the Costa Rican economy is on a path of moderate and stable growth over the next 12 months.
The BCCR anticipates GDP growth of 3.8% in 2025, driven primarily by domestic demand and the robust performance of goods exports, particularly in medical devices and agricultural products such as pineapples. Although a slowdown in economic activity is anticipated for 2026, the projected growth remains above the global average, reflecting the resilience of the national economy in an uncertain international environment marked by trade and geopolitical tensions.
Regarding inflation, prices have remained low and stable, with general inflation averaging 0% and core inflation at 0.8% during the first half of 2025. Inflation expectations are anchored within the target of 3% and its tolerance range of ±1 %. Inflation is expected to return to the tolerance range by mid-2026, reinforcing confidence in the BCCR’s ability to keep down inflationary pressures originating from monetary forces.
Labor market conditions continue to improve, with the unemployment rate dropping to 7.4%. Real incomes have risen, particularly in the private sector and among women, and formal employment has expanded.
The central government will continue to show primary surpluses and a gradual reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio, contributing to fiscal sustainability and improving the country’s risk perception.
GF: Did you see progress in reforms that support long-term growth, including improving human capital, enhancing infrastructure, and fostering competition? If so, which ones in particular?
Madrigal López: Costa Rica needs additional efforts to improve the educational level of the population in vulnerable areas, further promote tourism, and consolidate infrastructure provision models based on public-private partnerships; however, in recent years, the country has made meaningful strides in implementing reforms that support long-term growth, particularly in areas critical to investors and policymakers. For example, in human capital development, the country’s authorities have focused on reducing informal employment, expanding bilingualism, and improving access to early education and care.
On the infrastructure and competitiveness front, Costa Rica is advancing climate-resilient public investment through partnerships, such as the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility. This not only supports sustainable development but also opens opportunities for green finance.
The country is also working to institutionalize the autonomy of its central bank, a move that reinforces macroeconomic stability and investor confidence. Meanwhile, regulatory reforms are underway to reduce barriers to formal business creation and enhance competition. These reforms collectively position Costa Rica as a more attractive and stable destination for long-term investment.
GF: A year ago, you explained how an amendment of Article 188 of the Costa Rican Constitution would grant the BCCR administrative and governance autonomy. Any progress on that?
Madrigal López: The reform enjoys broad support from international partners such as the IMF and OECD, which view it as a milestone for safeguarding price stability and strengthening investor confidence. While approval is still pending, the IMF has urged Costa Rican authorities to move forward without delay, recognizing the reform as a cornerstone of the country’s medium-term institutional agenda. This proposed amendment was part of the agenda during extraordinary sessions in May-July of 2025, but made little progress.
GF: What keeps you up at night?
Madrigal López: As a central banker, my main concern is the commitment to maintaining low and stable inflation, as established by our Organic Law. In this way, the entity that I represent can contribute to the country’s macroeconomic stability, facilitate efficient economic decision-making by various stakeholders, and, in turn, preserve the central bank’s institutional credibility.
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